پیش‌بینی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر پراکنش گونۀ بلوط ایرانی (.Quercus brantii Lindl) در جنگل‌های زاگرس، استان فارس

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری جنگل‌شناسی و اکولوژی جنگل، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران.

2 دانشیار، گروه جنگلداری و اقتصاد جنگل، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران.

3 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشکدۀ مهندسی و فناوری کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران.

10.22034/ijf.2023.344228.1876

چکیده

مقدمه: تغییر اقلیم می‌تواند پراکنش طبیعی گونه‌ها را تغییر دهد و سبب از بین رفتن تنوع زیستی در اکوسیستم‌های جنگلی شود. این تحقیق با هدف بررسی پیامدهای تغییرات اقلیمی بر پراکنش جغرافیایی گونۀ بلوط ایرانی به‌منظور مدیریت حفاظت از این گونه و انتخاب منطقۀ مطلوب برای معرفی گونه صورت گرفت.
مواد و روش ها: در این پژوهش پراکنش گونۀ بلوط ایرانی در سه دورۀ حال حاضر، سال‌های 2050 و 2070 و تحت دو سناریوی RCP2.6 و RCP8.5 مدل گردش عمومی HadGEM2-ES با استفاده از مدل مکسنت (Maxent) و متغیرهای اقلیمی و توپوگرافی استان فارس بررسی شد.
یافته ها: نتایج نشان داد که مساحت کل مناطق بالقوه مطلوب برای بلوط ایرانی در حال حاضر 8/7 درصد (5/9794 کیلومتر مربع) از کل مساحت استان است که تحت سناریوی RCP2.6 در 2050 به 6/6 درصد کاهش و در 2070 به 3/13 افزایش می‌یابد. همچنین مقدار کل منطقۀ مطلوب تحت سناریو RCP8.5 به 1/8 درصد در سال 2050 و 2/10 درصد در سال 2070 افزایش می‌یابد. مناطق با مطلوبیت متوسط، زیاد و بسیار زیاد به‌ترتیب از 8/1، 5/1 و 7/1 درصد در حال حاضر طبق سناریو RCP2.6 در 2050 به 1/1، 6/0 و 3/0 درصد کاهش و مجدداً در 2070 به 9/2، 6/1 و 2/1 درصد افزایش پیدا می‌کند و براساس سناریو RCP8.5 در 2050 به 6/1، 6/0 و 3/0 درصد کاهش و در 2070 به مقادیر 5/2، 9/0 و 2/0 درصد تغییر می‌یابد.
نتیجه گیری: این تحقیق آشکار می‌کند که پتانسیل پراکنش بلوط ایرانی براساس هر دو سناریو اقلیمی تحت تأثیر تغییر اقلیم قرار می‌گیرد. همچنین مدل Maxent توانایی زیادی در پیش‌بینی پراکنش گونه‌ها نشان داد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Predicting climate change impacts on distribution of Brant's oak trees (Quercus brantii Lindl.) in the Zagros forests, Fars Province

نویسندگان [English]

  • N Khajei 1
  • V Etemad 2
  • J Bazrafshan 3
1 Ph.D. Student of Silviculture and Forest Ecology, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, I. R. Iran.
2 Associate Prof., Dept. of Forestry and Forest Economics, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, I. R. Iran.
3 Associate Prof., Dept. of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture Engineering and Technology, University of Tehran, Karaj, I. R. Iran.
چکیده [English]

Introduction: Climate change has the potential to alter the natural distribution of species and reduce biodiversity in forest ecosystems. This study aimed to investigate the effects of climate change on the geographical diversity of Brant's oak (Quercus brantii L.) to identify the suitable area for this species' occurrence and manage its conservation.
Material and Methods: The distribution of Quercus brantii was studied under current and future climate conditions (2050, 2070) using two climate change scenarios, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, HadGEM2-ES General Circulation Model, the Maxent model, and topography data of Fars province.
Findings: The results showed that the current potentially suitable areas for Q. brantii constitute 7.8% (9794.5 Km²) of the total area of the province. Under the RCP2.6 scenario, this will decrease to 6.6% in 2050 and increase to 13.3% in 2070. Also, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the suitable area will increase to 8.1% in 2050 and 10.2% in 2070. Areas with moderate, high, and very high suitability, currently at 1.8%, 1.5%, and 1.7% respectively, will decrease to 1.1%, 0.6%, and 0.3% in 2050 according to the RCP2.6 scenario, and then increase to 2.9%, 1.6%, and 1.2% in 2070. According to the RCP8.5 scenario, these values will decrease to 1.6%, 0.6%, and 0.3% in 2050, and finally change to 2.5%, 0.9%, and 0.2% in 2070.
Conclusion: The study demonstrated that the distribution of Quercus brantii is affected by climate change based on both scenarios. Also, the Maximum Entropy model has proven highly effective in predicting the distribution of this species.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • Distribution
  • Fars province
  • Maxent
  • Quercus brantii
 
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